Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the RBC Canadian Open as the event returns following a two-year hiatus and heads to St. George’s Golf & Country Club.
The golfing world is being turned on its head — for better or worse — with the first LIV Golf event in London taking place and the confirmation that Phil Mickelson will be front and center alongside Dustin Johnson and others. But while that’s the case, the PGA Tour wages forward this season and heads north of the United States for the RBC Canadian Open as the lead-up to the third major of the year, the U.S. Open.
Due to COVID-19 restrictions, this is the first time the RBC Canadian Open will have been played since 2019 when Rory McIlroy won. He’s in the field to defend his title once again but it will be played on a different track as the championship heads to St. George’s Golf & Country Club, the first time that the tournament will be played there since 2010.
That’s a bit unfortunate as we try to comprise our PGA Tour expert picks for the week. The lack of recent course data can make this situation difficult, which isn’t great after a week in which we got beaten up on the odds board. So the best advice would be to wager small, wager smart and perhaps dial back the number of wagers.
Despite all of that, when looking at the board, these are the PGA Tour expert picks for the RBC Canadian Open with selections to win, Top 10, One and Done, and more best bets.
Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
PGA Tour expert picks for RBC Canadian Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Pick to Win the RBC Canadian Open: Sam Burns (+1400)
The last time we saw Burns in the field, he came from behind on Sunday to win at Colonial. Now we’re at another short course that will highlight his elite ball-striking and, sneakily, the fact that he’s been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour as of late. This feels like a great spot to bank on him and BetSided editor and my Green on the Greens co-host Iain MacMillan agrees as the Louisiana product is one of his outright picks as well.
I’m here to respect Sam Burns. He’s exploded onto the season over the past 12 months, and deserves to be listed amongst the top golfers in the world. He has three wins already this season, and he’s coming off a huge come-from-behind win at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The thing I like the most about him this week, is that he’s fantastic on short approaches, but also great on long Par 3s. He ranks seventh in Par 3 scoring from 200-225 yards out, while also ranking fifth in approach shots from 100-125 yards out, 25th in 125-150 yards out, and 49th in approach shots from 150-175 yards out.
Top 10 pick for the RBC Canadian Open: C.T. Pan (+550)
While C.T. Pan might not be considered a widespread household name in the golfing world, those of us in the weeds know that he’s a short-course specialist who can show up on certain courses and be a factor. The data shows that Pan could be that here. He should be able to take full advantage of the five Par-3s on this course as he ranks 22nd on Tour in Par-3 scoring average and has gained 0.69 strokes per round over his last 24 rounds. I would perhaps be a little bolder with this if he wasn’t 163rd in Par-5 scoring but a Top 10 at these odds is quite attractive as a bet.
One and Done Pick for the RBC Canadian Open: C.T. Pan
Since I already used Burns earlier in the year and, frankly, don’t have many plans for Pan in this regard moving forward, this is where I’m going for the One and Done this week. The reasons as to why have already been covered and I like for him to show up big this week.
RBC Canadian Open best bets
Every week, Iain Macmillan of BetSided and myself break down our best bets and more on Green on the Greens. Check out this week’s episode and our picks here.
Corey Conners to finish Top 20 (-110)
Probably influenced by Iain’s Canadian-centric picks to honor his countrymen, I love some safe bets to ensure that the money doesn’t leave us in a big way this week. Conners is part of that. I faded him last week and he repaid me with a T13 finish at The Memorial. His ball-striking should be perfect for St. George’s and getting a standard -110 to only finish Top 20 in an extremely top-heavy field is good value.
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 (+110)
Speaking of good value, I don’t see how someone with the talent of Rory doesn’t finish Top 10 at this place. The way he flights his irons on these long Par-3s should be beneficial in comparison to the field, his short game has been impressive, particularly around the green, this season, and we know he’ll always take advantage of Par 5 scoring this week.
Adam Hadwin to finish Top 20 (+150)
Back to another Canadian, Hadwin has been impressive overall this season but has simply had a couple of less than stellar tournaments lately to throw us off of the scent. On the whole, though, he’s gaining 0.5 strokes per round on approach over his last 40 rounds while remaining accurate off of the tee and a good around the green player. For these odds at +150 at his national championship, this should be a good look.
Longshot pick to win the RBC Canadian Open: Adam Svensson (+15000)
We’re back to an old favorite this week and it just so happens to be Svensson’s national championship as one of the Canadian’s in this week’s field at St. George’s. He popped several times early in the season but has started to fall off a bit more recently. With that said, he’s been finding his DNA again with ball-striking on approach and evening out with the putter as well. At his national championship, this is worth a dart throw.