College football expert picks against the spread for every Top 25 Week 13 game with rivalry week in full swing featuring Ohio State-Michigan and much more.
Rivalry week. It’s arguably the best time of the season for fans and for good reason. The stakes are high in games like Ohio State-Michigan and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State, among others, as it pertains to the playoff. But the stakes of these games with years of history baked in is that much higher as well. That, however, can also make our college football expert picks that much more difficult to navigate.
After picking things up against the spread in Week 11, we continued the good vibes there with a 14-9 weekend there, leaving us at 108-119-4 for the year. As for the totals, we were slightly below .500 at 11-12, which puts us with a 122-105-4 record there. That’s a total record of 230-224-8 for the 2021 season.
Even with the toughness of rivalry week before us, we’re going to finish with some big winners as we make our Week 13 college football expert picks against the spread.
Note: All odds are via WynnBET. For more betting info and content, visit BetSided.
College football expert picks against the spread for Week 13 Top 25 matchups
Missouri at 25 Arkansas (-14.5) – Over 62.5 (Playing on Friday)
The one thing I can say with certainty about this game is that a lot of points will be scored. After that, I just throw my hands up. My gut tells me Arkansas is the superior team that should cover in Fayetteville but their defense is always a concern for me, especially with a potential letdown game after a close one against Bama.
24 Houston (-32.5) at UConn – Over 55.5
Houston has now won 10 consecutive games since losing their opener and now they face arguably their worst opponent yet in UConn. The Huskies have been a doormat and I don’t see them having a single answer to the Cougars offense on Saturday afternoon.
23 Clemson (-11.5) at South Carolina – Under 43.0
Despite the flashes South Carolina has shown at points this season, they have done nothing to make me believe they can score on Clemson’s defense. Moreover, with the Tigers finding their juice behind Will Shipley and the run game, Clemson should roll pretty handily in Columbia.
22 UTSA (-10.5) at North Texas – Over 59.5
The Roadrunners need this win to finish a perfect regular season and, after two extremely tight wins, they face a far inferior Mean Green team. UTSA has scared me a bit of late but I expect this team to be motivated to finish the job at hand and come out with a resounding victory.
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Boise State at 21 San Diego State (+2.5) – Under 44.5 (Playing on Friday)
I like the total play much more than the spread because, well, SDSU unders have largely been absolute money this season. With that said, the Aztecs have been more consistent in controlling games. At home, that’s enough for me to take them getting points.
North Carolina (+6.0) at 20 NC State – Over 62.0 (Playing on Friday)
Since Mack Brown took over in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels have dominated this rivalry quite thoroughly. Even though NC State is a better team this season by record, North Carolina will end the year with an exclamation point, especially with Sam Howell getting a week to rest.
Colorado at 19 Utah (-23.5) – Under 52.0 (Playing on Friday)
There’s a good chance in my mind that Utah will need to score 53 points for this over to hit. The Utes defense has been dominant and Colorado’s offense leaves a lot to be desired. With the way Cam Rising is playing as well, this feels like almost too easy of a pick to make.
18 Wake Forest (-5.5) at Boston College – Over 64.5
Clemson is just about the only defense that we’ve seen put the clamps on Wake Forest. Spoiler: Boston College isn’t Clemson. Moreover, I don’t see the Eagles having enough offense to keep up with the Deacs, though they will still score plenty against a porous defense.
17 Pittsburgh (-13.5) at Syracuse – Under 58.0
Pitt should be able to score almost at will based on what we saw last weekend from NC State, which makes me confident in the Panthers. My hunch, though, is that Syracuse might be over this season and won’t mount much of a counter-attack, which is why my play is on the under.
16 Iowa at Nebraska (-1.0) – Under 41.0 (Playing on Friday)
Especially with Adrian Martinez out, just hammer this under, even with how low it is. These are two high-quality defenses up against bad offenses. That’s not good for scoring points. And when Iowa plays a good defense, I’m going to fade them, hence why I’m with the sub-.500 Huskers.
15 Texas A&M (-6.5) at LSU – Under 46.5
Though Texas A&M has looked less than perfect when not playing Alabama, this line just feels wrong. The Aggies are better on both sides of the ball that LSU. Even with the “win one last game for Coach O” is in play, I don’t think that’s enough for the Tigers to hang in this matchup.
14 Wisconsin (-7.0) at Minnesota – Over 39.0
As easy as it would be if Wisconsin was the team they were early in the season, this is a different iteration of the Badgers. They’ve found their offensive identity and remain an elite defense. I don’t think Minnesota has the juice to play Wisconsin’s game and keep it anywhere close on Saturday.
13 BYU at USC (+7.0) – Over 64.0
Tell me this isn’t exactly how this game will play out: USC with Jaxson Dart will come out firing and look the best they have all season, riding high and pulling off a huge upset. The result will be the Trojans getting buzz with a new coach going into next year, even if BYU is probably a bit overrated. Frankly, I can’t unsee that playing out now, so here we are.
Penn State at 12 Michigan State (+1.5) – Under 52.0
If we’re talking real money, I want absolutely nothing to do with this game. For the purpose of these picks, though, give me the Spartans in a relatively low scoring game. They have a bit more offensive firepower, even amid some injury concerns, and probably shouldn’t be home underdogs.
Oregon State (+7.0) at 11 Oregon – Under 60.5
Even with a different name for the rivalry and even when the talent gap is large between these two teams, it always seems to be a close game. The Ducks are going to have a hangover while the Beavers will likely put everything into this game. Heck, I might take Oregon State outright in this one.
10 Oklahoma (+3.0) at 7 Oklahoma State – Under 51.0
Everything about this season points to Oklahoma State being the right play. Their defense is elite and up against a still-highly imperfect Oklahoma offense. Yet, the Sooners own Bedlam and this feels like it’s definitely setting up for a huge OU win that crushes the dreams of Mike Gundy’s team.
9 Ole Miss (+2.5) at Mississippi State – Over 64.0 (Playing on Thursday)
On the surface, there are a lot of signs to take the Bulldogs at home. Ole Miss has been stumbling slightly lately and Lane Kiffin seemed awfully chummy this week. I’m not buying it. He’s hiding his hand and will unleash hell on Thursday night in the Egg Bowl, proving the Rebels are the superior team.
Texas Tech at 8 Baylor (-14.5) – Under 52.0
It feels like Texas Tech already won their proverbial Super Bowl with the field goal to beat Iowa State. Baylor, on the other hand, has to win to even have a shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. I see the Bears coming out and dominating defensively at home to get a comfy win.
6 Notre Dame (-19.5) at Stanford – Over 52.5
This is another line that just feels wrong from the oddsmakers. Stanford has been gashed on the ground and Notre Dame has found their sauce with their rushing attack. The Cardinal might get a couple of scores but not nearly enough to remotely match what the Irish should be capable of in this matchup.
2 Ohio State at 5 Michigan (+8.0) – Under 63.0
It’s wild to think that 11 games into the season that there are unknowns for The Game. But Michigan hasn’t played an offense like Ohio State’s and the Buckeyes haven’t played a defense like the Wolverines’. When OSU has faced quality defensive fronts, though, they’ve struggled slightly. I see that happening and, even if they win, it won’t be by more than a touchdown — and yes, I’m ready to look completely stupid for this pick.
4 Cincinnati (-14.0) at East Carolina – Under 57.5 (Playing on Friday)
With ECU playing better of late, you’re going to find some that say Cincinnati will tighten up and play this one closer than they should. That won’t be me. The Bearcats found their mojo again and will show that again in a game which they control from start to finish.
3 Alabama (-19.5) at Auburn – Over 56.0
Especially after last week’s close call against Arkansas, Alabama needs style points. With Auburn not having Bo Nix on the field, they are downgrading at quarterback. Even if their defense has moments, I don’t believe they have enough on either side of the ball to keep the Crimson Tide at bay.
1 Georgia at Georgia Tech (+35.0) – Under 54.5
I fully believe that Georgia could win this game by 50 if they wanted to — but I don’t think they do. The Dawgs are going to dominate early then pack it in and potentially rest players for bigger things (i.e. the SEC Championship and CFP) that lie ahead for this team, allowing the Jackets to cover the huge spread.
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