By Charles Lipson for RealClearPolitics
The crisis of illegal immigration—to give this calamity its true name—is growing increasingly grave. The reason is no mystery. The Biden administration replaced policies that staunched the illegal flow of migrants with policies that actually encourage it.
Instead of securing the U.S. border, the administration says it wants to deal with the “root cause,” desperation in Central America.
That won’t work for two reasons.
First, the administration doesn’t have the tools to markedly change conditions in Central America.
Second, even if the policies could stimulate economic growth, improve safety, and reduce corruption—spoiler alert, they can’t—they won’t have any significant impact for years.
Under even the most optimistic scenarios, they couldn’t reduce immigration anytime soon. It’s a policy based on a mirage.
The Biden team is certainly right that bad conditions in Mexico and Central America drive immigration. But it’s easy to show that’s the wrong explanation for our current crisis. The reason, as all social scientists know, is that “you cannot explain change with a constant.”
What is constant here? Poverty, corruption, and danger in Mexico and Central America. Since those “root causes” have not changed over the past year, they cannot explain the dramatic rise in illegal immigration since Biden took office.
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What does explain it? The administration’s decision not to secure the southern border and to give up any serious effort at preventing illegal immigration.
Migrants have gotten the message, and they are coming north in unprecedented numbers.
The media, always eager to protect their favorite political party, never asked Vice President Kamala Harris three crucial questions after her “root causes” trip to Guatemala and Mexico.
- Can the U.S. really do much to improve conditions there?
- Would relatively modest improvements have much impact on migration? And, crucially,
- How long before these policies can have a major impact, if they work at all?
Back in the real world, the best Biden-Harris can expect is some small, slow improvements. Desirable as those are for humanitarian reasons, they would have no effect on migration for decades.
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Source: The Political Insider