2021 NFL Draft Prop Bet Predictions

2021 NFL Draft Prop Bet Predictions | Sports Takes & News | TooAthletic.com

As the 2021 NFL Draft quickly approaches, the number of rumors surrounding one of the biggest NFL events of the year is rising, and so too are the number of prop bets that can be made. With the first round of the draft becoming an event unto itself, looking at the betting odds being offered for the 32 selections that will be made on April 29 provides a glimpse as to what may happen that night. So, as we take at look at those odds, I will offer my 2021 NFL Draft prop bet predictions for Round One.

There would probably be an investigation into the mental health of Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer if his first draft pick was not Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. While not nearly the same mortal lock, the New York Jets have long been linked to BYU’s Zach Wilson, making him the teams next quarterback of the future.

Where the betting odds have been quickly moving and shifting are over the third pick in this year’s draft, now held by San Francisco. Shortly after the 49ers traded up with Miami to get the overall third pick, Alabama’s Mac Jones was considered the favorite to become the chosen quarterback of head coach Kyle Shanahan. As we crossed into the second half of April, however, Ohio State’s Justin Fields has become the betting favorite to go west when San Francisco is on the clock.

After seeing so many people like what they saw from Jones and downplaying what they observed from Fields this offseason, I am not one of those people who believe the 49ers would have traded up for the Buckeyes QB. Most former NFL coaches who are helping teams from a distance are more impressed with Mac Jones, putting him closer in skillset to Zach Wilson, with Fields closer to being a long-term project than a sure-fire top-three pick. 

While I am honestly rooting for a shocking surprise here by seeing San Francisco stick with Jimmy Garoppolo and take a non-quarterback with the third pick, if they do go QB here, it will be Jones or Fields without hesitation. If that happens, then where Justin Fields is drafted puts another prop bet into play, with the over/under on the pick he is selected at 4.5. As someone who saw too many stories explaining why Fields was going to fall in this draft, taking the over is an easy selection for me since I don’t think the Atlanta Falcons will take the Ohio State QB at #4. Thus, allowing Fields to fall out of the top five since Cincinnati at #5 already has Joe Burrow.

Speaking of the Bengals, they appear to be a team that with their pick, will impact the draft in big way. I say this since when I look at where the over/under betting odds are for players like LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (6.0), Florida tight end Kyle Pitts (5.5) and Oregon offensive lineman Penei Sewell (5.5), you can make the case that three teams will be affected by what Cincy does.

Rumor has it that the Bengals quarterback, a former LSU Tiger himself, is pushing for his team to select his former teammate with the fifth pick. Chase, who is has emerged as the consensus best wide receiver in this year’s draft class, would offer Burrow a familiar and potent weapon to throw to. Of course, keeping the Cincinnati quarterback safe by taking the best of offensive left tackle may also be important to the Bengals as well.

For me, that means this is a two-player race at the fifth pick, with Kyle Pitts likely to fall out of the top five along with Justin Fields. The safe place is for Cincinnati to take Sewell, but the splashy headline pick would be Ja’Marr Chase, which is where I think the Bengals will go with the fifth overall pick.

An annual tradition at the NFL is which team will trade back into the first round in order to grab a quarterback and pick up that fifth-year option on their contract. That tradition is providing bettors with a chance to place a wager since the over/under for QBs selected on the first night of the draft sits at 6.5.

So, if you check off Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, Fields and Trey Lance from North Dakota State as first round givens, the question becomes are there other QBs out there an NFL team will be willing to trade back into the first round for?

Three names to watch for are Kellen Mond out of Texas A&M, who is often being linked to the Chicago Bears. Kyle Trask, the quarterback who was able to look good by throwing to Kyle Pitts at Florida, and is being mentioned with the Indianapolis Colts. Lastly, Davis Mills, the Stanford quarterback who many say is a sleeper in this year’s draft class, and has been talked about as an option for the New England Patriots.

With that coveted extra year on a contract, NFL teams are often interested in taking a prospect with upside late in the first round if they can arrange a deal late on that Thursday night of the NFL Draft. It is likely that at least one team will move up to take one of these three players or even someone else they like; but to bet on two teams doing that may be a risky, yet interesting bet. My money would be that only one team does it; but you know how the NFL Draft can turn into a night of trades, and sometimes once the first one takes place, many more follow.

So, don’t be surprised if this prop bet goes over when a team feels like they have found that next diamond in the rough. 


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2021 NFL Draft Prop Bet Predictions | TooAthletic.com

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